A great line from the movie Back to the Future is when Doc says, "Then tell me, future boy, who's president of the United States in 1985?"
While I can't predict who the president of the U.S. will be even 10 years from now, I can tell you that the role of the application developer will change drastically, as smart, new technologies become entrenched in every corner of the business world, as they will be in the consumer ones.
Are app developers' days numbered?
Just as Marc Andreessen predicted when he said, "Software is eating the world," the reality of a new world defined by software has come to pass. And in the next 10 years, that reality will only become larger.
Ironically, while software domination continues, the role of the software developer will wane, giving rise to a more complex data-driven role, as everyone becomes a programmer. So will the role of the app developer disappear? The answer is yes and no.
The demise of the application developer will be most noticeable in traditional, non-tech markets, as sophisticated business users, with easy-to-use, customizable tools at the ready, know what they want and easily code their own scripts. Yet within technology companies building more complex cognitive solutions, the need for people to maintain and manage these apps will continue. AI-based apps require continuous learning, and that will be closely aligned with data science.
The cloud changes everything
The growth of the cloud is also diminishing the role of the traditional app developer. The cloud has given us APIs and containers, so that anyone can build software that does something very specific and really well and sharing it in the cloud for public consumption.
Given this environment, traditional app developers, or software engineers in non-tech markets, may want to consider honing their skills in data science, cloud operations, and security. These are areas that will be in high demand, as a more complex, data-driven market becomes the new norm.
Tomorrow's tech-savvy users will also be fostered through school systems, which will increasingly teach computer programming skills beginning in elementary school, through initiatives, such as Code for America and an Hour of Code. So in addition to a major shift in the role of the software developer as we know it, the next 10 or so years bring other disruptive changes to the tech industry, so rev up the DeLorean and see what's in store:
- Major software releases will be a thing of the past. In less than 10 years, the idea that there was ever a Version 2.0 of anything will be the stuff of folklore. As devops makes the possibility of continuous software updates ever more pervasive, people are growing accustomed to these short bursts of new features, without all the fanfare of major new upgrades of the past. And this new upgrade model also can be attributed to the cloud, which makes the downloading of new updated versions transparent to business users.
- PCs may go the way of the dinosaur. Within 20-30 years, we may see the PC go away, as smart devices and phones accomplish what the PC once did. But none of this will occur until we change the way we interact with our devices, specifically via voice and text. First we need to eliminate the need for the keyboard and let the device understand and interact effectively through another means.
- AI changes everything. Everything will include AI and forms of cognitive computing. Even if it's as simple as the security feature you put in the software, everyone will touch AI in their everyday interactions. For example, when someone is looking up a phone number in the next few years, even searching on Google will seem like dusting off the yellow pages. Instead they will simply speak or text to something more intelligent.
- The death of the call center. People-manned call centers will become a thing of the past, since machines will be able to solve the majority of problems, and self-diagnostic tools will eliminate the need for people to react to problems on their own. The business world will follow the path of the connected home, where every-day appliances contain IoT-enabled self-diagnostic software that recognizes trouble and sends a message to have a dispatcher come to your house. Following this trend, business users may never have to interact with someone in a call center again.
- Software development becomes specialized. As the number of connected devices grow and users become more sophisticated, we'll see more specialized software developers. The full stack developer will be a thing of the past, since there will be far too many technologies and devices for a single individual to be highly proficient developing for all of them. Consequently, software developers will have to specialize in software development areas like APIs, mobile front-end, IoT back-end, etc.
The role of the application developer will change dramatically in the next 20 years, and advances in smart software and how it interacts with humans will transform the way we live and work. We're on the precipice of major changes, and as Marty McFly said, "This is heavy."